91探花 Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wischhofstr. 1-3
D-24148 Kiel
Germany
Phone: +49-431 600-0
Fax: +49-431 600-2805
E-mail: info(at)geomar.de
January 20, 2025: Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics Colloquium
Dr. Daniel Krieger, Hamburg University: "Machine learning-based storm surge predictions in the German Bight"
When? Monday 20 January 2025 at 11 am
Where? Conference Room 5-1.214, Building 5, Wischofstr. 1-3 and
Zoom:
Abstract:
Decadal predictions of the storm surge climate in the German Bight are important for coastal protection and management. While storms, the main drivers of surges, have been shown to be skillfully predictable on a decadal scale with a dynamical large-ensemble prediction system, the spatial resolution is too coarse to generate predictions of local surge heights. We therefore use machine learning to statistically downscale the output of a decadal prediction system based on MPI-ESM to generate decadal predictions of surge metrics at three locations of the German Bight coastline. We show that these predictions can be skillful, especially for multi-year averages and simple surge metrics.
